The South East Qld Market, What’s Driving it?

At the start of the year, many ‘experts’ were making the point that growth in SEQ would slow from the 20+% figures we saw last year, to around 10%. Even back then, I begged to differ. I still beg to differ.

Why?

Source: CoreLogic

ONE: Climbing down off the super crazy Covid, FOMO market.

Looking at Brisbane’s first quarter figures; values increased by 5.7%. Let’s subtract 5.7% from the experts’ 10%…..= 4.3%. So, we now have three quarters of the year left to increase prices by significantly less than the first one quarter. Personally, on current trends, I could see that happening in a few months. I’m thinking an increase of at least 12-15% for the year. We’ve got until at least the end of the year, maybe more, to run out of this crazy market effect……interest rate rise or not.

TWO: Immigration.

We all know that the “Mexicans” have been moving one or two borders north up to the Sunshine State for many years. Currently, they are arriving in higher numbers.

As for the rest of the world, net overseas migration is forecast to increase to 41,000 in 2021-22, 180,000 in 2022-23, and 213,000 in 2023-24, before returning to normal at around 235,000 in 2024-25. This naturally will be spread across more than SEQ, but we will get our share for sure. As can be seen here, this is going to take 3-4 or maybe even 5 years to normalise. All those with approved visas who couldn’t get out here before…….now they can.

Some say we’ve gone “off the boil”. A bit……maybe, but all I’ve seen of this is that instead of 45-50 groups showing up at open homes, we’ve only got 25-30. If we hadn’t just experienced the super crazy market of the last two years, we’d all be “aahing” and “wowing” about “30 groups!! How hot is the market right now”? Offers are still going in at the first open home at well above the asking price in most cases.

Add the “Mexicans” to the rest of the world coming over and then have a good think about what is going to happen to the numbers of property buyers showing up at the open homes, that are still waaaay above normal. They’re all going to need somewhere to live.

Three: The Olympics

2032. Isn’t that going to ramp up the property machine in Brisbane? The rest of SEQ will likely be following along on the heels no doubt with various events located all about the South East. Let’s look at what happened to Sydney in 2000. About five years prior, the property market started to warm up, with buyers getting in to take advantage of the Olympic size crowds, who would all need accommodation for the duration. That didn’t stop until 2 years after the Olympics, when many visitors probably thought that this was such a good place they would come back to live.

The long and the short of it is that, I can see property in South East Qld moving forward for many years to come. Maybe even right up to 2034……two years after the Olympics. Sure, there will be areas that plateau and some areas that will continue to fly ahead of the rest, but that is always going to happen with differing socio-demographics. The main thing is that you are in the mix. If you want to find out how to get in the mix, give us a call at PPBA before you do anything else.